Heat

Punjab's summer reaches the high forties in the south-west. Its winter reaches near freezing with dense fog for weeks. The range across a year is among the widest in India.

The March heatwave of 2022 arrived during wheat grain filling and cut Punjab's yield by a measurable margin across the state. Wheat needs a cool March; a hot one shrivels the grain.

That is the mechanism by which climate change reaches Punjab: not gradually, but as one bad fortnight at the wrong point in the crop cycle.

The winter fog closes the highways and the airports and is thickest over the irrigated belt, which is partly a consequence of the irrigation itself.

Breeding programmes are working on heat tolerance and earlier maturity. The window between a paddy harvest and a wheat sowing is already tight, and pushing wheat earlier collides with it.

Punjab's agriculture is calibrated to a climate that is changing faster than a breeding cycle.

May and June run past forty-five degrees in the south west and the loo blows through the afternoon. Work stops in the middle of the day and starts again toward evening.

The fog is the other extreme and it has been getting worse. December and January bring stretches of days when visibility on the Grand Trunk Road falls below fifty metres, the trains run half a day late and the flights stop, and the wheat underneath it does not mind in the slightest.

Punjab has no heat action plan of any consequence at the district level, and the outdoor workforce, in the fields, on the kilns and on construction, is who carries the risk.

What we don't know

  • Projected yield impacts under warming scenarios, which vary widely by model.

Where to check this

  1. India Meteorological Department records. Government of Punjab ↗
  2. Punjab Agricultural University assessments of the 2022 heatwave impact on wheat. Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana ↗

This page has not yet been read through by the editor. Treat it with more caution than the rest.

How this page was written. The text is compiled from the standard published histories and reference works, not from a document held in hand. Nobody from this project has visited the place or read the archive. The list above is where a reader can go to check it, not a record of what was consulted line by line. Dates and figures are the received account. If you hold something better, write in and it will be corrected.

This is one of 76 accounts in What the Land Holds, the chapter of this site covering the rivers, the soil, the weather and what lives here.